South Korea is confronting a serious manpower shortage in its military as the number of eligible young men continues to decline, officials have warned.
According to the South Korean defence ministry, the country’s active military force has shrunk by 20 per cent over the past six years, falling to approximately 450,000 troops. This leaves the armed forces about 50,000 soldiers short of the level considered necessary to maintain full defence readiness in 2025.
More critically, there is a reported shortfall of around 21,000 non-commissioned officers, key personnel who play vital leadership roles within the ranks.
The shrinking manpower is directly linked to South Korea’s record-low birthrate, which fell to just 0.75 children per woman last year, the lowest fertility rate globally. This demographic trend has drastically reduced the pool of men reaching conscription age.
South Korea continues to enforce compulsory military service due to its ongoing technical state of war with North Korea, whose active military is estimated at around 1.3 million soldiers.
A study published last month by South Korean researchers highlighted that the South Korean military needs a minimum of 500,000 troops to effectively deter or repel any potential aggression from the North. The study warned that the current imbalance in troop numbers places South Korea in a “structurally difficult position to succeed in defence” and called for “decisive action at the national level” to address the shortfall.
Government data shows the population of 20-year-old men, the typical age when conscripts begin service, has dropped by approximately 30 per cent between 2019 and 2025, now standing at about 230,000.
South Korea’s population, which peaked at 51.8 million in 2020, is projected to decline sharply to around 36.2 million by 2072, making it one of the world’s fastest ageing societies.
The demographic challenges facing South Korea present an urgent question: how will the country sustain its military strength in the years to come?
