As the war in Ukraine approaches its third year, the situation is evolving dramatically. Russia’s military advances, particularly in the Donbas region, are pressing forward with increased speed, and the Ukrainian military is under severe pressure, even as it continues to execute successful asymmetric attacks. The conflict, which has resulted in hundreds of thousands of casualties on both sides, seems to be heading toward an inflection point, with questions arising about what the next few years will hold.
The Context of the Conflict
In December 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged the shifting dynamics of the war, describing significant movement along the front lines, particularly in the Donbas, where Russia has steadily captured territory. For many Ukrainians, this has meant an agonizing decision: either flee before the front lines reach them, or wait until bombings begin to push them to safety. However, despite some Ukrainian military successes, particularly in disrupting Russia’s military supply chains, Ukraine appears to be losing ground, particularly as Russia intensifies its pressure.
With the potential change in the US presidency in 2025, under former President Donald Trump, the strategic direction of the war could shift. Trump has expressed impatience with the prolonged conflict, criticizing both the high human cost and the extent of US involvement. Trump has vowed to end the war quickly but has yet to specify how this would occur. Many observers speculate that his administration would push for peace talks, though the specifics remain unclear.
The Ukraine Position: No Negotiations Without Consequences for Russia
Ukrainian officials, especially President Volodymyr Zelensky, have rejected any talk of negotiations unless Russia is made to pay a higher price for its aggression. Zelensky’s government remains firm in its stance that they will not negotiate until the Kremlin is held accountable, and they are unlikely to accept any pressure for peace talks unless there is a tangible shift in Russia’s strategy.
At the same time, Zelensky seems to be preparing for negotiations, with a keen understanding of Trump’s transactional nature. In this light, Zelensky has sought to bolster Ukraine’s appeal to the incoming US administration. One element of this strategy is the “Victory Plan,” which suggests that post-war Ukrainian troops could potentially replace US forces in Europe and contribute to securing strategic resources, such as uranium and lithium.
However, this proposal has not received unanimous support. NATO membership for Ukraine remains a contentious issue among its Western allies. While the Ukrainian government has declared a commitment to NATO membership, key members, particularly the US and Germany, have hesitated to extend an official invitation to Ukraine, fearing the escalation of conflict with Russia.
The Shift in Global Support and Security Guarantees
As the war progresses, Ukraine’s position is becoming increasingly precarious. With growing manpower shortages and Russia’s continued territorial gains, the country is now seeking stronger, legally binding security guarantees. These guarantees are viewed as critical for Ukraine’s future survival, especially as the conflict continues to destabilize the region. Without a concrete form of protection, such as the NATO Article 5 mutual defense clause, the threat of future Russian aggression remains ever-present.
Proposals for peacekeepers in Ukraine, such as those floated by French President Macron, have been met with skepticism, particularly if NATO is not involved in the arrangements. Ukrainian officials have made it clear that they will not accept a ceasefire unless it comes with assurances of future security something beyond paper agreements that were broken in the past.
The Role of Western Support
With the prospect of a more isolationist US under Trump, Ukraine’s reliance on Western support could become even more crucial. NATO and other Western allies, including the UK, are actively looking for ways to bolster Ukraine’s defense, particularly through additional air defense systems and increased training for Ukrainian forces. Some reports suggest that UK troops may be sent to assist in training, although this could also signal the West’s attempt to prepare Ukraine for a potential shift in US policy.
Meanwhile, sanctions against Russia have continued to intensify, though their impact on the Russian economy remains limited. Russia has faced rising inflation, interest rates, and a weakening ruble, but Putin has maintained that these sanctions are not a critical threat. Nonetheless, Western officials believe the combination of battlefield losses and economic strain may eventually push Russia toward the negotiating table.
The Potential Endgame
The end of this war is far from certain, and many factors will influence how it unfolds. The cost of the war, both in terms of lives lost and economic tolls, may eventually force Russia to negotiate. However, how much more territory Ukraine will lose and how many more lives will be lost before negotiations begin remains unknown. If peace talks do take place, they may require significant compromises, as Zelensky has signaled willingness to accept NATO membership only for the territories under Ukraine’s control at the time of any agreement.
In conclusion, 2025 could be a pivotal year in the conflict, but the path to peace remains uncertain. If the war continues on its current trajectory, both sides may ultimately face pressure to come to the negotiating table. However, the situation will depend heavily on international dynamics, especially the role of the US under a potential Trump administration and the continued support Ukraine receives from its allies.
